ALL BLOG POSTS AND COMMENTS COPYRIGHT (C) 2003-2017 VOX DAY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. REPRODUCTION WITHOUT WRITTEN PERMISSION IS EXPRESSLY PROHIBITED.

Monday, April 17, 2017

Warning signal or support?

I think it is too soon to declare which side the Chinese and Russians are actually on with regards to the potential US-North Korea showdown:
China and Russia have dispatched intelligence-gathering vessels from their navies to chase the USS Carl Vinson nuclear-powered aircraft carrier, which is heading toward waters near the Korean Peninsula, multiple sources of the Japanese government revealed to The Yomiuri Shimbun.

It appears that both countries aim to probe the movements of the United States, which is showing a stance of not excluding military action against North Korea. The Self-Defense Forces are strengthening warning and surveillance activities in the waters and airspace around the area, according to the sources.

The aircraft carrier strike group, composed of the Carl Vinson at its core with guided-missile destroyers and other vessels, is understood to be around the East China Sea and heading north toward waters near the Korean Peninsula.
So, Japan is activating more ships in the area, but this is not seen as a "warning signal" because the Japanese are known to be allied with the USA and even more concerned about the North Koreans. It seems to me that it is at least as likely that the Chinese and Russian intelligence ships are there to assist the strike group as serve as any kind of deterrent to it.

It's important not to take ANY of the public announcements from any party too seriously. Remember, in war, the first casualty is truth. It's not in anyone's interests to inform the enemy exactly what it is that they are doing, or intending to do.

At this point, given all the global publicity being devoted to the Carl Vinson group, it would appear to be the most likely candidate for being a feint while the real attack comes from somewhere, or even someone, else.

Labels:

173 Comments:

Blogger Kona Commuter April 17, 2017 3:52 AM  

China is on China's side, Russia is on Russia's side.

Blogger Noah B The MacroAggressor April 17, 2017 4:00 AM  

The routine peacetime role of intelligence ships and aircraft is to gather new information to help better understand adversaries' weapon systems, tactics, etc. This is a potentially valuable opportunity that Russia and China don't want to pass up.

Anonymous Eduardo April 17, 2017 4:04 AM  

So Vox, who will draw the Blade and make the first move?

This situation is getting worse, somebody is bound to snap and attack. Maybe China taking out key elementa of NK's structure? Maybe Japan? Or will Japan be hit again by a Nuke or some other cold war contraption? I am guessing the US won't put men in harm's way for now. Do you think the battlegroup is a diversion to allow a "flanking" maneuveur and a surprise attack?

You should run one of those simulations of possible COA of this scenario, ought be fun.

Anonymous Looking Glass April 17, 2017 4:05 AM  

Japan actually has a very sizable Navy. And they're in Spring, so it should be heavy activity period for them. The main action really should be a honest-to-goodness Sub Hunt. Removing the Missile Sub + destroying the Drydocks is going to be a top strategic priority.

The two main military ports for the Norks are at Nampo (just outside Beijing) and Sinpo, east side rather near Russia. The established Trump Doctrine, from the Syria Strike, is our priority is the bases of action of the "problematic" delivery vehicles. So those two sites, their missile construction facilities and the currently active Subs are going to be the highest priorities.

It's also understandable the Window here. 1-2 years the NK has a viable, enough, Warhead + 2ish Missile Subs. China's rabid dog is then off its leash. It'll drive Japan nuclear really, really quickly.

Anonymous map April 17, 2017 4:16 AM  

What's interesting is how everything is playing out according to what was discussed during the presidential debates. Trump did talk about North Korea and handing pivotal defensive issues to Japan. He did show great concern over North Korea having nukes.

Anonymous Looking Glass April 17, 2017 4:27 AM  

@3 Eduardo

Desert Storm caused a world-wide cement reinforced bunker building boom. We've built a few generation of Bunker-Busters since then. Some I believe we've yet to use in any combat situation.

Carriers are going to be for air-cover more than strike attacks. That'll be left to the support ships and the guided-missile boats. Since I believe most Submarine movement is classified, I'm not sure anyone is allowed to say just how much metal we've got in the region, but it's got to be a huge chunk of the fleet. Japan also has ~20 subs of their own and an entire air-wing of Sub-hunters.

https://infogalactic.com/info/Massive_Ordnance_Penetrator Off a B-2 would not surprise me to see action in this type of activity. I'd be really curious of the activity at Guam at the moment. Anyone in Missouri hearing things about B-2 activity?

From a purely larger over-view, if Trump stays in the "we'll let China worry about Regime Change if they're in, otherwise we don't care" mode, then the actual target list is fairly low. Wipe out their Radar & Air defenses with Ship-launched Tomahawks. Overflight Japan and wipe out any Naval facilities with anti-hardened Weapons. Second wave of bombers can use some of the newer Air-to-Ground bombs while being generally safe. (Though this definitely strikes me as a B-1/B-2 type of mission.)

Still, it'd be better for everyone is China just shoots its rabid dog dead and puts in a better guard dog. The Kim family really has played this entire situation all wrong since 1991. They could be in the exact same control position and not an pariah, but, no, they like being a god. It's also the power that goes to your head.

Blogger Aeoli Pera April 17, 2017 5:46 AM  

It doesn't matter so much who makes the first move, as who has motive to continually escalate.

Blogger ZhukovG April 17, 2017 6:08 AM  

No one, particularly South Korea, wants a war on the Korean peninsula. I believe the most likely scenario is that China will initiate a coup, assuming they have a viable leadership candidate.

The Chinese can, in the confusion, claim that there is a US sponsored coup occurring and send its troops in to 'aid their fraternal socialist allies'. The South Koreans denounce the US actions and also offer support to their 'kinsmen' in the North.

The coup will be seen to fail, but regrettably Kim Jong Un dies, much mourning ensues.

Scorecard:

China wins, and keeps it's client and looks to the North Koreans as, once again, their hero. China assumes control of NK's nukes.

The US wins, we claim the coup was really a success, political victory for Donald Trump. There's enough meat to keep the MSM distracted for weeks while the GE resumes work on his domestic policies. Potential Bonus: John McCain has an aneurysm.

South Korea wins, better relations with the North without having to sink their economy. The lights stay on in Seoul.


Blogger Bogey April 17, 2017 6:22 AM  

"It's not in anyone's interests to inform the enemy exactly what it is that they are doing, or intending to do."

Also I can't see how defending North Korea is in the interest of China or Russia.

Blogger Lazarus April 17, 2017 6:29 AM  

The designated home port for the USS Ronald Reagan is Yokosuko, Japan, so there is another one there already.

Blogger Al From Bay Shore April 17, 2017 6:32 AM  

I'm going to place thirty bucks on a coup set in motion by China. I'm thinking United States and Diem all over again. Wish me luck!

Blogger Cataline Sergius April 17, 2017 6:42 AM  

Honestly, I'd have been a lot more surprised if they they were not trailing the Vinson.

Anonymous glosoli April 17, 2017 6:44 AM  

The North Koreans have *weapons of mass destruction*, so they must be attacked. Just after a Trump election, just before the greatest depression takes hold. This timing is pure coincidence of course, they suddenly became much more dangerous than they have been over the past 70 years.

War porn, seems as popular as ever with Americans. It's a messed up world. Dying Empires love to project the pretence of former powers.

However, VP Kushner's crowd are still pulling the strings, so wars are inevitable. Many are salivating at the prospect, despite alt-right rules about leaving sovereign nations alone.

I know, I know, you read in the news that they have nukes, so it has to be true. Valerie Plame must be watching with horror at the unholy alliances being formed.

http://www.age-of-the-sage.org/philosophy/history/learning_from_history.jpg

Blogger Vikki Wilson April 17, 2017 6:58 AM  

# glosoli.
You are a true seer.A poet.
100% wet blanket.

Anonymous basementhomebrewer April 17, 2017 7:05 AM  

Noah B The MacroAggressor wrote:The routine peacetime role of intelligence ships and aircraft is to gather new information to help better understand adversaries' weapon systems, tactics, etc. This is a potentially valuable opportunity that Russia and China don't want to pass up.

Especially if there is even a slight chance that a cruiser in that group has the ability to shoot down ballistic missiles. If Kim manages to launch anything during the conflict Russia and China will have a front row seat to our anti-ballistic missile capabilities.

OpenID aew51183 April 17, 2017 7:10 AM  

A few years ago the chinese surfaced a fast-attack sub within striking distance of one of America's carriers. (demonstrating the complete obsolescence of the carriers and their defense group).

Given this, it's quite clear the chinese would attack through these subs, and as such these intelligence ships are in fact there to provide support while taking the outward appearance of harassment.

Blogger Durandel Almiras April 17, 2017 7:19 AM  

Odd, so many seem to want China, Russia and the US to be at each other's throats. Does the possibility of the 3 working together scare more people than the reverse?

Blogger Ken Prescott April 17, 2017 7:21 AM  

"A few years ago the chinese surfaced a fast-attack sub within striking distance of one of America's carriers. (demonstrating the complete obsolescence of the carriers and their defense group)."

Please explain, in detail, how aircraft carriers are obsolete. And then please explain why the Chinese are spending a great deal of money building aircraft carriers.

A submarine surfaces inside the formation--considering how BIG the formation is (dozens to hundreds of miles in diameter), that's not saying much. (The only time the carrier group formation looks as it does in the usual pictures is when they're taking one of those pictures for the cruise book).

OpenID anonymos-coward April 17, 2017 7:29 AM  

Remind me, how is blowing up Korea going to make America great again?

OpenID paworldandtimes April 17, 2017 7:31 AM  

Agnostic has an interesting analysis, pointing to the possibility that Trump's real "target" might in fact be South Korea.

http://akinokure.blogspot.com/2017/04/on-korea-what-is-trumps-history-of.html?m=1

PA

OpenID aew51183 April 17, 2017 7:42 AM  

@18

The hulls and drive-trains were designed when our grandparents were young. High radar cross-sections, obsolete armor, noisy. They are open targets for saturation attack by cheap ASM's, stand out like a strobe in the darkness for attack subs, which have become more silent and effective.

They're certainly useful against tin-pot dictatorships but any serious warfare against a major power would expose their weaknesses rapidly and I'd expect catastrophic attrition, forcing replacement with an updated design and leaving the US with a naval deficit similar to that experienced after pearl harbor for several years.... something much more catastrophic in the modern day than in 1941.

Anonymous Teapartydoc April 17, 2017 7:48 AM  

North Korea is out of step with the regional hegemon. The same kind of thing happened in countries in the Soviet orbit. In particular I'm thinking about Albania, which is the closest thing to NK, in the late 20th century. If they had been next door to Russia, I think that they would have been dispatched with haste during the Gorbachev era. As things were, they got no sympathy at all from Russia when they fell.
I think the Chinese are beginning to realize that if they don't do something soon, the little monster Mao created might destroy them, or at least screw up their ability to trade.
This business of the Russians and Chinese chasing our boats around is understandable. They don't trust us, and why should they? We could have unstated goals in the region or elsewhere.

Blogger peter blandings April 17, 2017 7:54 AM  

zero hedge is reporting that trump did not order nor authorize the dropping of MOAB in afghanistan.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-04-16/has-trump-lost-control-pentagon
so has he delegated the role of commandar in chief to mcmaster, AKA the homicidal maniac, and his bitch, james mattis? none of this needs to be happening. the entire three front crisis has been manufactured by the u.s.

Please explain, in detail, how aircraft carriers are obsolete.

they are big and slow and can be swarmed with cruise missiles. if you need to project that much power that far away from home, you have no business being there in the first place. the completely predictable SOP of the u.s. to any thing it doesn't like is to send a carrier group in that general direction. it is a very simple matter now to direct the u.s. navy anywhere an enemy chooses simply by making a noise at the desired destination. one of those times, an ambush will be waiting.

Blogger Whisker biscuit April 17, 2017 7:54 AM  

Cause it lets alt-right video game geeks get their rocks off analyzing 4G war on the internet. Call of Duty LARPing

Blogger Basil Makedon April 17, 2017 7:55 AM  

The intel ships are obviously there to collect as much data as they can about the performance of our weapon systems. That tends to support the theory that they are going to let the US remove Kim (or at least try to do so).

Blogger Phelps April 17, 2017 7:57 AM  

The intel ships are also in-line with the coordination theory. If you've made a deal with the US for them to support your ground push from their CBG, then you know what targets they are going to strike, and you have a crib that you can use to try to better understand the ELINT. There's no way you pass up that opportunity.

Anonymous Darth Dharmakīrti April 17, 2017 8:00 AM  

@6

Jack Posobiec put up a photo 3 days ago (unknown provenance) of B-2s spotted over Arkansas, flying west.

Blogger MrPaules April 17, 2017 8:27 AM  

I've found Bombard's Body Language on YouTube to be a valuable resource. Her analysis of Kim Un is revealing: petulant, defiant, fearless. He's a dangerous sociopath. I'm hoping he'll be removed by an internal coup.

Anonymous Silly but True April 17, 2017 8:29 AM  

I'm not sure that indicates anything. A B-2 bombing of Berkeley or all of CA would make America great again.

Blogger Mr.MantraMan April 17, 2017 8:38 AM  

The Norks need a net connection so this is more interesting, tweet battles at 10,000 miles.

If we are down to Russian and Chinese trawlers for excitement we are scraping the bottom of the barrel for scripts. Hell in 85 from an amphib a squid on watch pointed out the Soviet's trawler and said it was fast as hell, so we been there.

We need "Norks off of LA, Tinseltown in distress." That would have been a better headline to ruin Easter Sunday than some average run of the mill kooky negro gone wild in Ohio or whatever that Drudge for some reason ran with.

Anonymous BBGKB April 17, 2017 8:42 AM  

many seem to want China, Russia and the US to be at each other's throats. Does the possibility of the 3 working together scare more people than the reverse?

jou can't sell to both sides of a war if there are not 2 sides

Blogger Nate April 17, 2017 8:45 AM  

I am reminded of the first Gulf War. All the ships were out and all the hell that got raised on the beach head. Sadam shifts his whole army to deal with an amphibious assault.

Thus he turned his back on the real assault, which was land based.

Anonymous Lawyer Guy April 17, 2017 8:50 AM  

Nate wrote:I am reminded of the first Gulf War. All the ships were out and all the hell that got raised on the beach head. Sadam shifts his whole army to deal with an amphibious assault.

Thus he turned his back on the real assault, which was land based.



Was just going to post this. Gulf War I the US kept two Marine Brigades floating on ships to head fake the Iraqi army. Ended up being a great plan, since you have to defend against them even if never used.

Anonymous dh April 17, 2017 9:07 AM  

Nate--

My oldest brother was there and the beauty and strategy involved in the attack is massively unremembered. Even, for that matter, in the second Iraq war, the strategy and tactical workmanship was outstanding.

Then you have politicians who ruin it.

I feel strongly that based on available evidence that Trump won't ruin whatever is cooked up.

Blogger Nate April 17, 2017 9:08 AM  

"Gulf War I the US kept two Marine Brigades floating on ships to head fake the Iraqi army"

Not to mention the SEAL Team that actually went to the hypothetical beach head and set off so off so many huge explosions with their demolitions that the Iraqis believed the invasion was actually happening.

Blogger Nate April 17, 2017 9:13 AM  

"I feel strongly that based on available evidence that Trump won't ruin whatever is cooked up."

Like others... I am far more worried about the influence those surrounding trump have on him.. than I am about him.

The plain truth is two of Trumps most trust advisors...his daughter and her husband... are hardcore liberal democrats. And while the Democrat Republican denomination is less relevant today that previously... I have no reason to think they are anything but Globalists as well.

Blogger ace April 17, 2017 9:18 AM  

I haven't got a sophisticated analysis to offer, but my gut feeling is several weeks of multi-party grandstanding followed by the CV going home and deescalation for everyone. With Trump I feel tentatively that we'll something out of it. The most expedient, least dangerous form of such a deal would be China telling Jong-un that he gets to keep his head if he stops developing nukes. I assume world leaders work on sitcom rules--at the end of the episode most everyone wants to return to status quo.

Anonymous Anonymous April 17, 2017 9:22 AM  

I don't think that China is ready to accept a united Korea ruled by the south directly on their border. Just don't believe they will.

I think the best (only, really) hope is that China removes fatboy and selects a new "Maximum Leader" from the current N. Korean leadership. They say to the new N. K. honcho - "you can be the new big cheese, run the place, steal everything you want, all as usual. Just don't make us come back down there."

They then say to the US - "There. Fixed it for you."

DCP
NWEOI - YMMV

Blogger Cail Corishev April 17, 2017 9:27 AM  

Odd, so many seem to want China, Russia and the US to be at each other's throats. Does the possibility of the 3 working together scare more people than the reverse?

It sure seems to scare the people who try to control the narrative, doesn't it?

As far as I can tell, the MSM viewpoint on this doesn't even consider the possibility that we're not in the Cold War anymore, and Russia might not be opposing us in whatever we happen to be doing. (This, despite the fact that they spent the last year selling "Trump is a Putin stooge." If they really believed that, they'd be asking, "Why is Putin having us threaten North Korea?")

But to believe the US is unilaterally going after North Korea without at least the tacit cooperation of Russia and China (or at least one of them), you have to assume Trump and his people are stupid and/or trying to start a war, so you're right back to the idiotic "Trump is a crazy loose cannon" fantasy from the campaign. Hell, the "Putin ordered us to do this" theory makes more sense than that.

The only way any of this starts to make sense and fit into what we know about China and Russia is if they're in on it. That doesn't mean they have to be happy about it, and there could certainly be disagreements and negotations about how far it goes and who does what. But at least when you see it that way, you don't have to assume anyone involved is insane or working against his own interests for unfathomable reasons.

Blogger Ken Prescott April 17, 2017 9:27 AM  

"The hulls and drive-trains were designed when our grandparents were young. High radar cross-sections, obsolete armor, noisy. They are open targets for saturation attack by cheap ASM's, stand out like a strobe in the darkness for attack subs, which have become more silent and effective."

Are you, perchance, a closet flat-earther? No? Good.

The Earth is, in fact, a sphere. And it has an annoying habit of obstructing the view of your radar. And your radar has an annoying habit of announcing its presence to the target long before it ever sees the target.

And submarines have the problem of the air/sea interface blocking their primary sensor, AND not having reliable access to offboard sensor data to extend their fighting range. Their primary sensor is a purely tactical one (maximum effective sonar range is POSSIBLY 90-100 miles, assuming ideal propagation, and that's at the lowest frequencies, which means you lose the ability to discriminate between a CVN and a freighter hauling a gazillion or so Priuses--or would that be Prii?), and is easily saturated (because it requires a human operator to interpret the output--the Tom Clancy "sonar computer" identifying the target is only found in Tom Clancy novels). Submarine weapons are either very short-ranged (which makes getting a good shot a matter of pure dumb luck) or they compromise the firing unit's location and are too few in number to attack effectively.

Defense of the battle group is a matter of how many guidance channels are available and the effectiveness of soft-kill countermeasures, and those have both risen by multiple orders of magnitude since the end of the Cold War. A saturation attack with ASCMs on one carrier group would amount to depletion of a major power's ASCM arsenal--and would very easily turn into a command-and-control nightmare, ending in fiasco for the attacker. This is my main critique of the Naval Postgraduate School's New Navy Fighting Machine doctrine; it is designed to counter the Macross Missile Massacre, but real life isn't anime.

I reiterate this point because it's important: finding the enemy is the heart of modern naval warfare. Everything you say is correct, but it's built on an assumption that the enemy is actually able to search the area where the carrier is located at the time it's actually there. And that is simply not a given. The mere act of searching announces your presence--and your interest--in a given area. It will likely actually give away far more information than you collect.

"They're certainly useful against tin-pot dictatorships but any serious warfare against a major power would expose their weaknesses rapidly and I'd expect catastrophic attrition, forcing replacement with an updated design and leaving the US with a naval deficit similar to that experienced after pearl harbor for several years.... something much more catastrophic in the modern day than in 1941."

Again, you are hand-waving away the scouting problem. Naval warfare, at its heart, is about scouting. Against a much more robust than present day Russian air and naval presence, our carrier group routinely disappeared in the Mediterranean, which in geostrategic terms would be akin to someone blinking out of existence from the street in front of your house.

And before you say "MUH SPACE ASSETS," kindly remember that the Soviet RORSAT/EORSAT constellations were much denser than present day when we were playing Cowboys and Cossacks. And we disappeared from those, too.

Blogger Nate April 17, 2017 9:29 AM  

"The most expedient, least dangerous form of such a deal would be China telling Jong-un that he gets to keep his head if he stops developing nukes"

there are a lot of problems with this... starting with the fact that he already has the nukes. what's got everyone's panties wadded up is the missile delivery system he's building for them.

We suck at ballistic missile defense.

The other big problem is that this involves trusting the chinese to do something.

Anonymous Darth Dharmakīrti April 17, 2017 9:44 AM  

The fundamental problem here is that the long term trends necessitate unification, but a) SK does not want to have to deal with an East Germany-type situation (except much much worse), and b) a unified Korea, even without any US garrison, amounts to a geostrategic salient against China.

I don't think anyone really knows what is happening or what is likely to happen. Ace is probably right about the "sitcom rules," which have been in effect since the armistice. The problem is that the situation is now unsustainable, and not only because Kim is at most a few years from having a credible launch system (and may already--some reports indicate the missile test failed because of US electronic interference).

So I expect regime change in the North, followed by Southern cooperation with China--something like permission to unify the peninsula, and military/financial assistance with the unification process, in exchange for economic, territorial, and intelligence concessions.

Anonymous Marvin Boggs April 17, 2017 9:49 AM  

@34: Many people seem to think that Trump is predictable. Maybe he is. But if he knows he's predictable, he can use that to his advantage and be the head fake while his generals do something else.

Blogger Lovekraft April 17, 2017 9:55 AM  

I'm wondering whether Israel and the Saudis will 1. pick up the tab and 2. be the dumping ground for the inevitable refugees/aid recipients.

Anonymous basementhomebrewer April 17, 2017 9:56 AM  

Nate wrote:"The most expedient, least dangerous form of such a deal would be China telling Jong-un that he gets to keep his head if he stops developing nukes"

there are a lot of problems with this... starting with the fact that he already has the nukes. what's got everyone's panties wadded up is the missile delivery system he's building for them.

We suck at ballistic missile defense.

The other big problem is that this involves trusting the chinese to do something.



This is where the real problem is at. If we are planning a joint attack it better involve the Chinese as the ones lighting the fuse and in a big way. If we are the ones launching missiles and dropping bombs to kick off the operation there is a good chance the Chinese turn around and march their troops right back home while the North decimates the South with artillery.

Anonymous Crew April 17, 2017 9:57 AM  

OT, but an SJW-converged organization sees some push back:

https://heatst.com/tech/drupal-contributors-threaten-to-quit-after-a-developer-is-banned-for-his-private-sex-life/?mod=sm_tw_post

Should Drupal be called Droopy instead?

I dunno what to make if the banned person's private life.

Blogger Doom April 17, 2017 10:03 AM  

Hrm? Russia and China are on, respectively, Russia's and China's side. While they will work with others, it is only for their own ends. If they can get something for giving something, or get something for allowing something... sure. Who plays the best cards and has the most to offer... of what they want?

If they have some responsibility for NorK, they don't care. They aren't in the game for that and will ignore that completely when at any bargaining table. Now, NorK, if tied to them, and does something really bad, whether they accept it or not, they will be made to pay. So... given all that, a shake, and a stir? I'm honestly surprised little Kimmy isn't dead. Though it might be that he has cleared his personal staff to very few very trusted and isn't talking to foreign actors anything like directly at the moment. Just... a precaution. Even so, I am surprised he is drawing breath, unless the reds think it's just a dog and pony for concessions or proof of power.

Tick tock. *boom?*

Anonymous BBGKB April 17, 2017 10:11 AM  

OT:New bill to penalize missed vaccines
Pediatrician writes of snuffing out anti vaxxers
http://articles.mercola.com/sites/articles/archive/2017/04/04/vaccine-mandates-at-work-legal-requirement.aspx

More bad news for the chickenpox vaccine
http://blog.drbrownstein.com/the-chickenpox-vaccine-mess/

Anonymous Lawyer Guy April 17, 2017 10:16 AM  

Just heard a report that Mattis is also sending the Nimitz and Reagan to the Korean region.

Reagan is based in Yokosuka, so not a huge trip.

Blogger Lovekraft April 17, 2017 10:22 AM  

major o/t but here's a nice demonstration of sjw hypocrisy (gamergate):

http://ageofshitlords.com/men-accused-gamergate-misogyny-now-jail

Blogger Nate April 17, 2017 10:26 AM  

"The fundamental problem here is that the long term trends necessitate unification"

Unification is not possible.

Anonymous Iron Spartan April 17, 2017 10:28 AM  

If the 3 most powerful national identities (4 if you count Japan) can work together on mutually beneficial goals, then the EU style globalists goals are officially doomed.

Blogger Titus Quinctius Cincinnatus April 17, 2017 10:29 AM  

It could just be that the Chinese and Russians are planning to gather intelligence data about US combat capabilities should it come to open conflict.

Anonymous 43rd Virginia Cavalry April 17, 2017 10:31 AM  

I have been thinking about this for some time. The big winner of a unified Korean peninsula under the government of south Korea would be China. As the saying goes, "meals don't fall from empty tables". The danger is that a greedy China might annex North Korea.

Anonymous Lawyer Guy April 17, 2017 10:36 AM  

Turned on the TV to see if they had any carrier news on Fox, nothing right now, but two thoughts from the Easter Egg Roll they were covering...

Melania Trump is most likely the best looking first lady ever. Her accent is still a little strong, but her pacing and volume are great.

I voted for and pulled for Trump, but I am really glad he is running things now. Hill would have been a disaster, but BushIII or any of the other GOPers would have not felt as good as he does. I really think he is strong, bright, and does not owe anyone anything.

Blogger marco moltisanti April 17, 2017 10:51 AM  

Mind. Blown.

Blogger Hammer6 Actual April 17, 2017 10:53 AM  

With 2 more CAGs inbound, all then need to add is some gators with their USMC load to the mix to fully draw assets onto the coasts. I'm sure they remember Inchon.

This is like a 4 receiver spread. Unless you have an excellent plan and resources, you are going to be vulnerable. A great way to make this easier for China to make their play.

There will be little left as reserves in the capital that could choose to be loyal.

The GE can win without having to expend ordnance.

Blogger Hammer6 Actual April 17, 2017 10:59 AM  

Darth Dharmakīrti wrote:The fundamental problem here is that the long term trends necessitate unification ...

I'm going to guess you haven't spent much time in the Asia theater, or you don't grasp the civilizational dynamic.

The LAST thing China wants is REAL democracy on it's border, they need a buffer+client state, they just want it more firmly under their control.

The hatred between different Asian tribes is visceral and publicly accepted. Something Americans will learn the hard way.

Anonymous Napoleon 12pdr April 17, 2017 11:00 AM  

The AGIs (intelligence ships) aren't there to help. If the balloon goes up, they hope to get a lot of information on U.S. wartime-only capabilities.

@16: Never assume a sub near a CVBG was untracked.

Ken Prescott has provided a good comment, I could not do better myself...and I'm in the business.

Anonymous Bukulu April 17, 2017 11:01 AM  

Peter Blandings @ 23,

I'd be much more unhappy to learn that the decision to use a MOAB did go all the way up to Trump. What, you really want LBJ the Second? GMAB.

Anonymous Bukulu April 17, 2017 11:07 AM  

"The hatred between different Asian tribes is visceral and publicly accepted. "

Indeed.

One year we hosted two foreign high-school students, one from Korea one from China. (Long story, not gonna tell it now.)

Things where acceptably smooth unless the dinner-table conversation turned to sports, then the nationalism really reared its ugly head.

Whenever this happened, I with shameless manipulation would just somehow introduce "Japan" into the conversation...

BINGO! Instantly both boys were immediately on the same side of the table, comrades-in-arms against the hated Imperial Japanese.

Anonymous Bukulu April 17, 2017 11:10 AM  

Napoleon @ 57,

Ken's comment is indeed good, except for this: it's a statistical argument, and if the enemy does sight you by whatever combination of skill, fluke, and bad luck (think the Japanese ships at Midway) they can put a world of hurt on you if they don't care about being hit in response.

Anonymous Trimegistus April 17, 2017 11:12 AM  

To all the super-genius experts on naval warfare who are dismissing carriers as "big and slow" -- you don't know shit. Carriers are the fastest ships in existence. They are faster than their escorts, and faster than most subs. Look up "Froude's Law" for an explanation.

Anonymous Darth Dharmakīrti April 17, 2017 11:14 AM  

"I'm going to guess you haven't spent much time in the Asia theater, or you don't grasp the civilizational dynamic."

I've spent much of my life in South Asia, but it's true I'm less familiar with East Asia. However, I was more referring to the long-term trends in terms of nationalism and Korean identity. I'm well aware that the Chinese and the Koreans don't get along, which is why I specified that China sees unification as a threat. But unification is not "impossible," on the contrary it is inevitable. At the end of the day the current divided status of the peninsula serves China first, the USA second, and South Korea a distant third. It's only a matter of time before the status quo is intolerable to enough Koreans to force a change in the dynamic, and Kim's development of missile platforms could very well be the spark.

Anonymous VFM #6306 April 17, 2017 11:26 AM  

This is where the real problem is at. If we are planning a joint attack it better involve the Chinese as the ones lighting the fuse and in a big way. If we are the ones launching missiles and dropping bombs to kick off the operation there is a good chance the Chinese turn around and march their troops right back home while the North decimates the South with artillery.

It is pretty clear that, if the Voxian NK Hypothesis is correct, then Trump is playing a very clear game of "trust but verify" with the Red Chinese.

Position the carrier groups as both a feint and a backstop while the NK missiles are still in the shaky stage of delivery, thereby both threatening and encouraging the Chinese to take a face-saving bold step.

Now, will the Chinese actually do anything for once? Maybe no. But Trump has very elegantly set the table for them to shine as a beacon of international ascension during a time that China is actually hitting some disastrous rough ground. If they don't bite now, they aren't going to.

If China doesn't bite, that doesn't mean the U.S. has to. It just means that the U.S. now has the green light to do anything it wants.

All Trump may want is a long enough horse's hair upon which to hang the sword of Damocles above the throne of Kim Jong Un.

So, if the Chinese act in the regional interest and curb the nukes, Trump wins. If not, Trump is positioned (but NOT required ) to take out NK himself, and wins. Trump can then deal with a starstruck Kim Jong Un...in person.

Crazy as that sounds, I've got to wonder if this kid who was obsessed with games, disney and the Chicago Bulls, might also not have been into Trump the Game. He would have been 20 and carefree when it was re-issued.

In any case, even that is on the table with this scenario. Trump is very good at setting tables.

Blogger Jamie-R April 17, 2017 11:28 AM  

If a war starts the DMZ will stay & eventually a new North Korean government will form, installed & approved by the Chinese. It will boom economically & have plenty of contacts with the South Koreans, but take decades to unify, even then it won't be total, more like Northern Ireland.

Blogger Lost Pilgrim April 17, 2017 11:38 AM  

The Chinese and Russians are on their own sides.

Wouldn't they be overtly sending observers in any case if they believed hostilities were about to break out, even if they were going to stay out of it themselves?

Blogger Jonathan Bennett April 17, 2017 11:43 AM  

> Warning signal or support?

Both. In a best case scenario, neither Russia nor China will 100% trust the US. In a worst case scenario, neither of them 100% trust NK with a nuclear missile.

I can only imagine that the current situation is somewhere in-between, where the intelligence ships are there to keep an eye on the US ships, to make sure they are sticking to the plan.

Blogger frigger611 April 17, 2017 11:46 AM  

@61 "To all the super-genius experts on naval warfare who are dismissing carriers as "big and slow" -- you don't know shit. Carriers are the fastest ships in existence. They are faster than their escorts, and faster than most subs. Look up "Froude's Law" for an explanation."

I don't think that the term "slow" is being used this way, to compare to other ships.

Every ship on the water is slow when compared to missiles and enemy jet fighters that can attack from relatively safe distances away.

Submarines have one advantage in that they have the ability to hide deep underwater.

A jet fighter traveling at 600-1000 mph can be downed by a missile, even when attempting evasive action. So yes, compared to other weapons platforms, surface ships are sitting ducks. They cannot evade and must rely on imperfect defense systems.

Anonymous Darth Dharmakīrti April 17, 2017 11:46 AM  

"even then it won't be total, more like Northern Ireland."

Unification may or may not take decades, but Northern Ireland is a terrible analogy.

1) Scots-Irish are not Irish; North Koreans are Korean
2) There is no comparable religious dimension to the division
3) In the wake of Brexit, and the increasing irrelevance of the religious division between Catholic and Protestant in technocratic Europe, even Northern Ireland is making noises about unification

Anonymous A Deplorable Paradigm Is More Than Twenty Cents April 17, 2017 11:54 AM  

So far have not been able to determine if the Chinese and Russian intel ships have escorts or not. An unescorted intel ship is a sitting duck, and shows a different intent from an escorted one.

Anonymous Bob April 17, 2017 11:56 AM  

It seems pretty obvious, though from an armchair.

Xi gets the Syrian missile news as he is talking to the new sheriff. Decides its better to lead the posse and call the shots than to stay back at the jail and wait for the prisoners. He gets to flex a little here on the world stage. Great intelligence gathering and the ability to steer the outcome.

On Putin's side, they'll be tracking not only the US movements but the Chinese as well. The real world doesn't operate like a game of chess where there are two defined sides. The real world is a game of monopoly where the enemy of my enemy is still just another enemy with a different set of cards. Of course they are going to stay out, if they can get/create some evidence of 'atrocities' that would be icing.

Trump and America win big time. Japan and SK now shoulder a greatly reduced joint defense, US troops and bases can call it short, Major US manufacturing competition just got their rent raised and suddenly He did exactly what He promised. Again.

The political fallout is just more win. The coming 'war' is going to be broken down ad nauseum, and the NK-Iran connection will be a factor in closing the immigration holes via the subpremes. Neocons are gearing up for an election season but they certainly can't roll out any Ryan accomplishments; the one picture they think they can draw is their "ability to keep the US safe". The GE is about to pat them on the head and tape that picture to the fridge. The fridge in the basement. The few smart ones will realize it is the alt-right base that matters going forward.

Winning. It isn't just for breakfast anymore but it definitely improves the taste of bacon.

Blogger Michael Neal April 17, 2017 12:00 PM  

I wouldn't expect to see any military action unless we hear Seoul is being evacuated, that will be the signal something is going down.

Anonymous Brick Hardslab April 17, 2017 12:09 PM  

Seoul is way too close to the border for any action to be taken without evacuation.

And if they evacuate the North know something's up so it's use it or lose it for them. They should have moved the capitol to Jejudo when they had the chance.

Blogger bosscauser April 17, 2017 12:10 PM  

Just for the Hell of it. No. Korea is half the size of Idaho....
With conventional weapons our national guard could do quit well against them....

Gab.ai/GaryCauser

Blogger Noah B The MacroAggressor April 17, 2017 12:10 PM  

Over-the-horizon radar has been used by the USAF since the 70's. The detection range is a multiple of what can be achieved with line-of-sight radar systems. I would assume that Russia, China, and possibly even NK all have this capability by now. As I understand it the main problem with this technology is that the achievable position resolution isn't all that great. Drones offer another cheap method of locating surface ships, and radar technology has improved considerably since the Cold War.

Meanwhile little has been done to reduce most surface ships' radar cross sections since the Cold War.

Blogger Silly but True April 17, 2017 12:16 PM  

@dh:
"...Even, for that matter, in the second Iraq war, the strategy and tactical workmanship was outstanding."

Have to disagree on this. Gulf War I was traditional land occupation of enemy. The power was broken to point of unconditional surrender.


Iraq 03 was the brainchild of Gen. Tommy Frank, solely focused on quick use of mechanized infantry and was essentially sea warfare. It allowed the taking of Baghdad, but also the enemy to keep their weapons. Frank purposely passed up city after city and enemy forces after enemy forces.


It was Bush's war on the cheap rather than have the big buildup of sufficient forces to take, hold, and break opposition.

It was the reason the guerilla combat began and why we were unable to stem the flow of Iranian and foreign fighters into the theater of battle.

It was shit strategy.

Blogger Nate April 17, 2017 12:18 PM  

"To all the super-genius experts on naval warfare who are dismissing carriers as "big and slow" -- you don't know shit. Carriers are the fastest ships in existence. They are faster than their escorts, and faster than most subs. Look up "Froude's Law" for an explanation."

The criticism isnt that they are slow mate. The criticism is that they are outdated. They are called Missile Magnets for a reason. They have been sunk over a dozen times in war games by freaking WWII era diesel electric subs.

I know a lot of Americans, especially the boomers, have huge air crafter carrier hardons... but in 2017... they are dinosaurs.

Blogger Nate April 17, 2017 12:20 PM  

"With conventional weapons our national guard could do quit well against them...."

our national guard couldn't win a war with Detroit right now. much less NK. Our troops are shot. Our military has been stretched thin and road hard for going on 20 years.

We're in shit shape and it didn't get magically fixed in 3 months because Trump took office.

Blogger Frank Brady April 17, 2017 12:50 PM  

At the risk of infuriating the remaining members of the Cult of Trump who post here with great regularity, the video at https://youtu.be/1fy0bT4FK9c is recommended for your thoughtful consumption.

Frank

Anonymous VFM #6306 April 17, 2017 1:01 PM  

Absolutely right Nate, but I think these maneuvers may be the first moves to wind down a number of overseas operations. Our career soldiers need to be based in America, living in America, on alert and trained to defend America, and the National Guard needs to go back to being a weekend militia with support, infrastructure and no deployments for at least 5 years.

Best case scenario out of all this is that Japan is freed up to act in its defensive interests, and the US gets out of Seoul and Japan at last.

I don't think that is going to happen, but it could happen, and that is the first time since 1992 that I have thought that.

Anonymous Mathias April 17, 2017 1:03 PM  

@78,

I think MSNBC is fake news, why are you still listening to them? "Hillary Clinton has a 95% chance to win."

Anonymous Sharrukin April 17, 2017 1:06 PM  

78. Frank Brady

At the risk of infuriating the remaining members of the Cult of Trump

They aren't cult members anymore than you are a paid Soros troll.

They simply believe that Trump is taking certain actions that may look damning but over time will be revealed to be something other than what it appears. They give less significance to certain things than you do.

I actually agree that Trump has been co-opted by the Neocons, or is currently required to placate them.

Time will tell who is right, but it doesn't mean that one opinion makes you a cultist, nor does it mean the other makes you a leftist troll.

Anonymous Mathias April 17, 2017 1:10 PM  

@81,

More likely he knows that in order to draw them out and deal with them, he needs to entice/goad them into making career-destroying political acts, and this is a huge bait. Futhermore, all these regions have deep-state assets co-positioned with the target area's the Neocons wish to take, what better way to disrupt their faction by moving military assets next to them under the pretense of furthering the neocon plan only to turn around and use those military assets to completely snake the deep state positions under the guise of "fighting ISIS"?

Anonymous A Deplorable Paradigm Is More Than Twenty Cents April 17, 2017 1:30 PM  

Norks say they will launch missiles every week, no word on how many they expect to blow up just off of the launch pad.

Anonymous Sharrukin April 17, 2017 1:31 PM  

82. Mathias

@81,

More likely he knows that in order to draw them out and deal with them, he needs to entice/goad them into making career-destroying political acts

That doesn't really explain the increasing Neocon presence and status in Trump's appointments. It also doesn't explain his inaction elsewhere and reversals on NATO, the Export-Import bank, Assad, Russian sanctions, and then there are his supporters being attacked in the streets while the police do nothing.

I am not seeing any clever plan here. That may be an intellectual failing on my part, but my cynical nature says it's because there isn't one.

I could be wrong of course... that happened back in 87, so it's not unheard of.

Anonymous patrick kelly April 17, 2017 1:46 PM  

"no word on how many they expect to blow up just off of the launch pad."

Maybe the US is goading them into blowing them all up themselves via testing, saving our military the effort and ammo.

Anonymous patrick kelly April 17, 2017 1:49 PM  

"I know a lot of Americans, especially the boomers, have huge air crafter carrier hardons... but in 2017... they are dinosaurs."

Here's a chance to see if the norks are better dinosaur hunters than the Iraqis or Iranians.

Anonymous A Deplorable Paradigm Is More Than Twenty Cents April 17, 2017 1:56 PM  

The last of Doolittle's Raiders marks the 75th anniversary of the bombing of Tokyo. Dick Cole is 101 years old.

"a somber affair" when he fulfills the long Raider tradition of toasting those who've died in the past year, using goblets engraved with their names, Cole tells the AP. In a private ceremony, he will offer tribute to retired Staff Sgt. David Thatcher, who died last year at age 94 in Missoula, Mont.

Blogger Nate April 17, 2017 2:25 PM  

"Here's a chance to see if the norks are better dinosaur hunters than the Iraqis or Iranians."

I would caution you to consider the implications of a sunk US Carrier on the American psyche and the esteem of the US world wide.

It is the kind of thing that historians use to mark the end of a super power.

Blogger Achilles April 17, 2017 2:47 PM  

There's a part of me that hopes Trump has stirred up East Asia into a war. A brutal grudge match between China, North Korea, South Korea, and Japan. We watch on the side lines. Sell them all arms. Not only will it kill off a lot of that surplus population but obliterate their manufacturing capabilities. We will get good trade deals then.

Blogger Silly but True April 17, 2017 3:02 PM  

Another thought after seeing THAAD deployments confirmed in SoKo.

Our resources could be entirely defensive in case Norks Alpha Strike their neighbors; that reaction could come from either China or US push.

THAAD long range. Patriot short range and AEGIS medium to short range.

With increased coordination, an air defense system in the theater that links army and navy ballistic defense would be pretty good.

Mind you, they all can get overwhelmed, but should North rain down 15,000 or whatever artillery in the first hour, all that would be needed to defend is that first volley before it would be silenced as North would lose the moral narrative and retaliation by U.S. would be fierce without condemnation.

Blogger Noah B The MacroAggressor April 17, 2017 3:03 PM  

I would caution you to consider the implications of a sunk US Carrier on the American psyche and the esteem of the US world wide.

The only way around that would be a crippling retaliatory response against NK - which sounds a lot like the way WW1 started.

Anonymous Mathias April 17, 2017 3:32 PM  

@84,

That's the entire point, you're not supposed to see it, and neither are the targets. If it can't fool you, how is it supposed to fool an insider? This is why we say "wait and see". No matter who he is deceiving, he's doing a good job of it.

Anonymous Bukulu April 17, 2017 3:38 PM  

Nate @88,

I see only two likely outcomes.

1. We fold. (Sucks to be us, from here on out.)

2. We get pissed. (Sucks to be the rest of the world...)

Blogger Beau April 17, 2017 3:43 PM  

Heavenly Father,

At this dangerous moment I ask for peace between China, Russia and the United States. I know rulers of evil in spiritual realms seek to incite humanity to cataclysm; I ask you to set evil aside and bind it. Lord Jesus keep us from blowing ourselves off the map. Thank you Lord. Amen

Blogger Nate April 17, 2017 3:54 PM  

"The only way around that would be a crippling retaliatory response against NK - which sounds a lot like the way WW1 started."

ah yup. just about like that.

we nuke and pave... China can't have us nuking and paving right next door. Russia is forced to pick a side in a war it would rather not see happen. All goes to shit from there.

which is why I would prefer our carrier strike group was no where near there.

Anonymous David-093 April 17, 2017 3:55 PM  

Amen.

Anonymous 5343 Kinds of Deplorable April 17, 2017 4:03 PM  

Lord Jesus keep us from blowing ourselves off the map. Thank you Lord. Amen

See, now THAT's a lucid prayer. Wish I could teach people at much church to pray practically.

Blogger Elder Son April 17, 2017 4:14 PM  

Or:

2. We get pissed. (Still sucks to be us, from here on out...)

Blogger Elder Son April 17, 2017 4:15 PM  

Pro-Trump feint: Russian and Chinese spy ships en-route to U.S.A. fleet to protect U.S. Warships. But to early to tell

Pro-Trump feint: Russian State TV Says Trump Is More Dangerous Than Kim Jong-Un

Another pro-Trump feint: China has warned the US against using military force against North Korea

Anonymous Crew April 17, 2017 4:17 PM  

The Norks clearly need some of these, ahhh, soldiers:

"One of the unit's members, 22-year-old Tonje, said the unit is proof that women can do the same job as men, even in the male-dominated world of the military."

http://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/inside-world-s-first-all-female-special-forces-unit-norway-n746041

Blogger IM2L844 April 17, 2017 4:21 PM  

Hmmm, it looks like the USS Carl Vinson is going to be joined by the CVN-76 Ronald Reagan and the CVN-68 Nimitz carrier group. That's a whole lot of fire power when added to the assets already in SK. The question is who is President Trump trying to mind 'expletive' while covering all his bases just-in-case. It's clear to me there is more than one psychological gambit afoot here.

If there are more neocons jumping onboard than there are Trump loyalists abandoning ship then it's aggregate effect is unitive and advancing his promise to bring the country closer together. Whatever is going on, you can bet it's not random happenstance.

Anonymous Mathias April 17, 2017 4:27 PM  

@99,

I invite you to read some historical annals (Western or Eastern, it doesn't matter which, nor does the particular conflict or era), political and military life is full of moves with more than one motive or purpose (in fact, if the apparent motive or purpose can be bent in several different opposing directions, all the better.) Those ships could be coming to help or hinder, and it's likely the captains of the ships wont know which it is until they arrive, nor do the politicians giving them the orders. Keeping your options open is always wise move if you can pull it off. The ships were sent because there was something to gain from sending them, but what the prize could be depends on the actions of the players. Most likely everyone is acting without full knowledge of the consequences, each gambling to gain more than they lose. The game isn't chess, it's high stakes poker.

Anonymous Grayman April 17, 2017 4:36 PM  

@100 Crew

Hmmm female SF team that is going to engage in physical combat you say? Just as good as men you say?

https://gab.ai/Ghostcyborg/posts/7037586

Blogger Silly but True April 17, 2017 4:37 PM  

2/4/17 - Aegis Ballistic Missile Defense System is actually joint US-Japan project:
"Today's test demonstrates a critical milestone in the cooperative development of the SM-3 Block IIA missile," said MDA Director Vice Adm. Jim Syring. "The missile, developed jointly by a Japanese and U.S. government and industry team, is vitally important to both our nations and will ultimately improve our ability to defend against increasing ballistic missile threats around the world."

http://www.navy.mil/submit/display.asp?story_id=98719

Anonymous A Deplorable Paradigm Is More Than Twenty Cents April 17, 2017 4:45 PM  

@104

A lot of weapons projects involve the Japanese, such as ongoing upgrades to the F-15 and payload qualifications for the F-35.

Blogger Buybuydandavis April 17, 2017 4:54 PM  

VD: It seems to me that it is at least as likely that the Chinese and Russian intelligence ships are there to assist the strike group as serve as any kind of deterrent to it.

If you look at Trump's recent proclamations, they often are varied levels of request for the Chinese and Russians to *partner* with the US to make the world safer.

Which is consistent with all three countries' interests, and nationalism generally.

TriDominium

The pieces are kind of falling into place, and NK would be the perfect coming out party.

Sounds far fetched, but a naval task force heading for NK *without* very active Chinese support sounds even more far fetched to me.

We live in interesting times.

Blogger Elder Son April 17, 2017 5:00 PM  

What the U.S.A. thinks it is: https://www.biblegateway.com/passage/?search=Micah+4:3&version=ESV

What the U.S.A. is: https://www.biblegateway.com/passage/?search=Revelation+18%3A2&version=ESV

You can postulate all you want. Penis pump our great military projection. But rest assured, China and Russia well do what is best for them. Not because of Trump, but in spite of Trump. Of course, there will always be the usual’s who will proclaim that Trump played a masterful game of 3D underwater chess. But in the end, the Chinese and Russians WILL do what is best for them, in. spite. of. Trump. They will play the Long Game, while the U.S.A., as usual, will play the “We can keep our cake and eat it too” game, and call it 3D Chess. You will not witness a Triad of International Peace.

Blogger Buybuydandavis April 17, 2017 5:05 PM  

ZhukovG wrote:No one, particularly South Korea, wants a war on the Korean peninsula. I believe the most likely scenario is that China will initiate a coup, assuming they have a viable leadership candidate.

The Chinese can, in the confusion, claim that there is a US sponsored coup occurring and send its troops in to 'aid their fraternal socialist allies'. The South Koreans denounce the US actions and also offer support to their 'kinsmen' in the North.

The coup will be seen to fail, but regrettably Kim Jong Un dies, much mourning ensues.



That has seemed the most likely outcome to me too. China takes over, puts in their guy. Everyone else is there to threaten NK, and give them motivation to let Big Brother in to help.

Actually, we're there to back up the Chinese and protect SK and JP.

I think I disagree on the final story, though. If it is pulled off, all countries say:

"Yeah, we all got tired of this shit from NK and got together to put a stop to it. Welcome to the New World Order."

Blogger Frank Brady April 17, 2017 5:37 PM  

This comment has been removed by the author.

Blogger Frank Brady April 17, 2017 5:39 PM  

81. Sharrukin April 17, 2017 1:06 PM wrote: "Time will tell who is right, but it doesn't mean that one opinion makes you a cultist, nor does it mean the other makes you a leftist troll."

I agree. One opinion does not make anyone a cultist. However, anyone who can digest the following Trump actions, believe that they are strategic "chess moves" and continue to support him qualifies.

1. The President has filled his Cabinet and inner circle with Goldman Sach's alumni and neoconservative war hawks who now appear to be in complete control of U.S. defense and foreign policy.

2. He was far too quick to accept a "deal" to replace ObamaCare with an even worse federally-controlled scheme put forward by Republican denizens of the "Swamp" he promised to drain.

3. He has increased U.S. military support of Saudi aggression in Yemen, authorizing an escalating number of air strikes against the Houthis.

4. He has maintained the totally unjustified "sanctions" against Russia, sanctions which comprise an act of economic warfare.

5. He has failed to inform the American people of U.S. involvement in the February 2014 overthrow of the elected government of the Ukraine, led by none other than the despicable John McCain and the harpy, Victoria Nuland, Hillary Clinton's Under Secretary of State. This failure implicitly gives credence to the false "Russian aggression" meme which is being drummed into the American public consciousness 24/7 by the bi-partisan establishment war party.

6. With respect to Syria, he has failed to inform the American people that under the Obama administration, the U.S. stood up, equipped, trained, and directed the so-called "Syrian Free Army" and is responsible for the years of war there. Although Assad is certainly an autocrat (on about the same level as our ally, the "King" of Jordan) when compared to the hideous regime in Saudi Arabia (also our "ally"), Assad is a virtual Captain Kangaroo.

7. Also with respect to Syria, Trump's UN ambassador, Nikki Haley, has now twice stated that removal of Assad is now a U.S. policy objective. This is exactly the kind of "regime change" operation that candidate Trump promised never to do!

Anonymous Siobhan April 17, 2017 5:41 PM  

Amen.

Anonymous A Most Deplorable Paradigm Is More Than Twenty Deplorable Cents April 17, 2017 6:02 PM  

Ooooh, concern trolls are ever more Concerned.

Tell us, "Frank Brady" and "Elder Son", what is your point, aside from the extremely obvious spreading of FUD? Clearly your intent is to demoralize Trump supporters and those who lean towards supporting Trump, but your "truth teller" cover story is getting thinner and thinner.

So what's the new legend? What's your excuse for bogus predictions, like Frank Brady's version of Chicken Little? What do you bring to the comments besides the same old - same old "Trump's a fake! He can't win! He's sekretly for Hillary! He's Illuminati! He's controlled by the Joos! Aaaaah!" that we've seen for almost a year?

Do y'all have anything real to contribute, anything at all?

Anonymous Clay April 17, 2017 6:02 PM  

Though I hate to say it...ever been to a Greyhound race, where the dogs chase a "mechanical" rabbit?

Maybe that's the Vinson's job...the rabbit.

Except, this rabbit can retaliate.

If not the carrier, it's escorting vessels. Including the subs.

Anonymous A Deplorable Paradigm Is More Than Twenty Cents April 17, 2017 6:09 PM  


If not the carrier, it's escorting vessels. Including the subs.



For sure there is a lot of IFF going on in the Sea of Japan right about now, with Japanese, US, Nork and maybe some other subs all out there playing tag and "follow the leader". The surface vessels might be outnumbered by the subs.

Blogger Theproductofafineeduction April 17, 2017 6:09 PM  

@ 110

Point 1 - It is incredibly naïve and unrealistic to assume that Trump was going to fill his cabinet completely with outsiders. There is a precedence for this, it was the Carter Administration and it was a complete disaster.

Point - 2 You're statement there says all it needs to. Audio of Ryan leaked out saying he was never going to support the president. What better way to remove an unfaithful ally then have him humiliate himself and reveal the impotency of his faction. Additionally you fail to note that Trump doesn't give up, rather he revises and tries again, see his order on keeping dangerous foreigners out. He is doing this again with health care.

3. You fail to note that ISIS is incredibly active in Yemen and Trump is merely continuing his promise to bomb the shit out of ISIS. His act isn't to support the Sauds, or fight the Outhits, as it is a fight against ISIS with the Sauds being a beneficiary in this instance.

4. Why are you conveniently forgetting the MSM Russian narrative, and it gives him leverage for negotiating later. This one is so obvious to explain I really have to question if your paying attention or suffering from Trump derangement syndrome.

5 - There is NO, I repeat, no good reason to do this. Again if Trump followed your advice his administration would be dead before it even began. I mean this is would be such an astonihsgly stupid move.

6. Your are lying here. He did this throughout the campaign there are even "correct the record" articles on this trying to say Trump is wrong.

7. And Trump himself said we aren't. I can see no other reason why you ignore words coming from the Presidents mouth himself other than you are desperately looking for any reason to say we've been betrayed. STOP IT.

Anonymous Azimus April 17, 2017 6:21 PM  

VD:
It's important not to take ANY of the public announcements from any party too seriously. Remember, in war, the first casualty is truth. It's not in anyone's interests to inform the enemy exactly what it is that they are doing, or intending to do.

At this point, given all the global publicity being devoted to the Carl Vinson group, it would appear to be the most likely candidate for being a feint while the real attack comes from somewhere, or even someone, else.


While I wouldn't bet my empire on this analysis, it's not too far out on the limb, especially in 2017, especially because it's related to North Korea, and especially because the Donald is constantly evolving his strategies and as a businessman should he keeps every possible option open.

If we are in a place where all these empires - Russia, China, US - are fighting 4th generation warfare, it seems that standing up for a psychopath with nukes is probably pretty low on your optics goals...

So I don't see either Russia or China doing much to stop the US, and since China wants their Nork play-thing I think they will bend over backwards to appease the US. But at the same time I agree with comment #1: China and Russia have their own interests, and I wonder if they're simply gathering intelligence on US carrier battlegroup operations, particularly interdiction and area defense tactics. I mean, afterall, the most likely thing either of these nations will be fighting in the near to medium future is a US carrier battlegroup, right? So why not learn how they launch attacks, and how they defend their ships? If anything, I would say the presence of Russian and Chinese "spy ships" means those particular nations feel a confrontation is imminent.

Anonymous glosoli April 17, 2017 6:28 PM  

@107,

'You will not witness a Triad of International Peace.'

Hmm, maybe we will, but it won't be good.

http://redefininggod.com/trump-and-putin-agents-of-chabad-lubavitch/

Watch for Putin to step us as the *hero* and press for a new global peace (probably after an engineered conflict in the Middle East or against Turkey), policed by the UN army. All a few years away yet.

Blogger Bob Loblaw April 17, 2017 6:30 PM  

Kona Commuter wrote:China is on China's side, Russia is on Russia's side.

Very much this. The Chinese and the Russians want the problem solved, but they're not above helping the Norks cut us down to size a bit if they see the opportunity.

Personally, I think we should force China to do this. The worst case from Beijing's perspective is a nuclear-armed Japan and/or South Korea. Trump should be sending back-channel messages to Xi that read something along the lines of "Take care of North Korea or we'll help the Japanese and South Koreans deploy a nuclear deterrent.

Anonymous Clay April 17, 2017 6:56 PM  

I always liked this quote by Lord Palmerston:

"We have no eternal allies, and we have no perpetual enemies. Our interests are eternal and perpetual, and those interests it is our duty to follow."

It was as relevant then, as it is today.

Blogger Elder Son April 17, 2017 6:58 PM  

Repeat.

@112 We're not delusional. Hence: China and Russia well do what is best for them. Not because of Trump, but in spite of Trump. And: You will not witness a triad of International Peace.

And:

What the U.S.A. thinks it is: https://www.biblegateway.com/passage/?search=Micah+4:3&version=ESV

What the U.S.A. is: https://www.biblegateway.com/passage/?search=Revelation+18%3A2&version=ESV

And, for this very reason, one day, America will get bitch slapped. Regardless what happens in Korea.

I just heard that Xi and Putin raised glasses on a joint memorandum celebrating LGBTQ+P equality and tampons in male bathrooms.

By the grace of God, and our heavenly mandate, and in the name of His holy name, Democracy. Amber waves of grain ahead.

I'm not a respecter of persons, nor countries. I'll call it like I see it. You can whip it out and furiously stroke it. After all, he is your "God-Emperor".

Anonymous A Most Deplorable Paradigm Is More Than Twenty Cents April 17, 2017 7:18 PM  

@120 "Elder Son"

Repeat

We got it. You are Concerned. Same stuff over and over. Throwing around Scripture doesn't change anything, Satan can quote Scripture, too. Your purpose is clearly to sew Fear, Uncertainty and Doubt, while seeking to distract.

Concern trolling here is so passe'.

Blogger VD April 17, 2017 7:28 PM  

You can postulate all you want.

And you can keep doomsaying and crying about the God-Emperor all you like. Have we invaded Syria yet like all the Never-Trumpers were saying was going to happen?

No.

So give it up. You've already demonstrated that your predictive model is false. There is no reason for anyone to pay any attention to your incessant doom-mongering.

Anonymous VFM #6306 April 17, 2017 7:33 PM  

Hey man, at least we don't have to deal with President Kim Ill Hill right now.

That would be bad.

Blogger JCclimber April 17, 2017 7:37 PM  

Looking at this from a historical and strategic perspective, this is one of the very best times to take out most of the NK senior leadership structure. The Chinese do not want a strong democracy on their border, so it is in their vital interest to keep SK and NK divided.

South Korea will take a huge economic hit if they are united with NK, but they will also be freed up from mandatory military service, and spending as much $$$ on defense. But since modern men never want to suck it up and take their medicine now so that the next generations will have it better, the SK people will fight against unification. NK is a basket case, in almost every measure.

But right now, Kim is weaker than his father and grandfather, China wants a distraction from their growing economic troubles, and also want to be perceived as a world power.

I will be very surprised if there is no major military/political action in Korea in 2017. I imagine the Chinese want to put a puppet into power in NK, and they probably will do so. But any loosening of the restrictions in NK will allow the people to see how bad off they are compared to the entire region, and that puppet will not last very long.

Anonymous Jay Will April 17, 2017 8:01 PM  

You'll be punished for choosing nationalism. Embrace the NWO. The American free spirit must be brought to its knees. Trump is livestock management.

If the animals could vote, they would vote for zoos.

Blogger Ken Prescott April 17, 2017 8:08 PM  

OK, responding to the responses:

"Ken's comment is indeed good, except for this: it's a statistical argument, and if the enemy does sight you by whatever combination of skill, fluke, and bad luck (think the Japanese ships at Midway) they can put a world of hurt on you if they don't care about being hit in response."

First, you mischaracterized my argument. It's not statistical; it's based on search rate. Everybody outside of the Western alliance skimps on acquiring search assets. They buy strike assets, but not nearly enough search assets (especially when you consider that those search assets--their bases, the assets themselves, their sensors, and their communications networks--are going to be under constant attack in a shooting war).

Second, you ignored the discussion of defensive firepower available to the CSG, though. Taking down a localized and identified CVN would likely significantly deplete even Russian or Chinese antiship missile stocks. And then the rest of the USN gets a more-or-less free ride after that.

"Submarines have one advantage in that they have the ability to hide deep underwater."

They pay for that advantage by (a) having far less firepower per ton of displacement relative to a surface ship while costing a great deal more per ton, (b) being operationally and strategically blind, (c) having a monospectral sensor suite that is highly sensitive to environmental conditions and is easily deceived or blinded (just put enough noise in the water), and (d) if their location is compromised, they're going to die because their sole defense is hiding--they do NOT have robust damage control capability. ANY hole in the pressure hull is likely to result in a sunk submarine, and even if it miraculously survives, it's a mission kill anyway.

Now, there are a couple of nations that I would worry about if they decided to go after American CVNs...

"Over-the-horizon radar has been used by the USAF since the 70's. The detection range is a multiple of what can be achieved with line-of-sight radar systems. I would assume that Russia, China, and possibly even NK all have this capability by now. As I understand it the main problem with this technology is that the achievable position resolution isn't all that great. Drones offer another cheap method of locating surface ships, and radar technology has improved considerably since the Cold War."

All over-the-horizon radar will accomplish is to tell you that there's a big ship out there. It doesn't tell you if it's a Super Panamax dead-heading back to Asia or a CVN. There are a LOT of big ships out there. You still need to get out there and find which one's which. Drones are allegedly cheap, but a decent radar and comms suite is still spendy. And they still radiate.

"The criticism isnt that they are slow mate. The criticism is that they are outdated. They are called Missile Magnets for a reason. They have been sunk over a dozen times in war games by freaking WWII era diesel electric subs."

War games are not real world, and the whole point of those war games is to bring home to the CSG staff the price tag of having an extremely predictable PIM (which the wargame ROEs mandate) that drag the CVN over the submarine's location.

Almost all of the responses make one key assumption at the get-go: that the CVN has already been found and the shoot-out is underway. That's not the assumption to make. The ones that try to address that point simply assume that finding the ship is easy. It isn't for our most likely adversaries.

Now, there are a couple of nations that WOULD worry me if they decided to go after American carriers. They are...

(DRUM ROLL SFX)

...Japan and the United Kingdom.

Thank you, thank you, I'll be here all week, try the veal, and don't forget to tip your waitresses!

Anonymous Jay Will April 17, 2017 8:11 PM  

Trump's been behind the curtain now, he's on board. Countries that choose nationalism will be punished. Super elites have nothing to gain by war, they will coalesce around globalist ideas.

If populations disobey they will suffer, ie major controlled wars that wipe out millions of human livestock. Future tale will be choose nationalism choose death. The rabbits will prosper the wolves will perish. NWO means domestication.

Anonymous Clay April 17, 2017 8:37 PM  

Ken, I've seem some turd-assed responses/posts in this forum before, but, yours has to be one of the most retarded.

I'd like to know where you derived your info from.

You didn't "invent" this response.

Blogger JaimeInTexas April 17, 2017 8:44 PM  

I am also of the opinion that aircraft carriers are obsolete but it depends on who is the enemy. Is N. Korea really able to sink one if it is able to find it? Better prepare as if yes even if the answer is most likle not.

Anonymous Clay April 17, 2017 8:55 PM  

Jamie, I have never said a Carrier could not be sunk.

It Can be "found".

Fine. Sink it if you can. The carriers are considered as US National Sovereignty.

Bad mistake, by the folks to sink one.

I asked a few forums ago...when is a ship/boat/sub considered a threat?

Anonymous Looking Glass April 17, 2017 8:55 PM  

@126 Ken Prescott

If they had the strike capacity, I'd also be really concerned about being anywhere near Australian waters. Being they're a large mass of land with minimal people, they've spent a LOT of money on detection at distance.

As for Japan, they've probably got the Sea of Japan currently covered in P-3s. Naval combat in that region is dictated by amount of small subs everyone has, and the Japanese have a massive network prepared for that. You don't really want to watch an attempted Japanese Amphibious Assault, as the likelihood of it going horrible is quite high, but their Navy is still top-notch. Which is why I assume the main strategic objectives will be sinking that North Korean Missile Submarine.

Blogger Ken Prescott April 17, 2017 9:05 PM  

"I'd like to know where you derived your info from."

Approximately 35 years of studying naval warfare from World War I to the present, including a great deal of talking to people who know what they're talking about, a great deal of reading (both books and professional journals), and a great deal of wargaming (both manual and computer).

Blogger DonReynolds April 17, 2017 9:09 PM  

@73 bosscauser
Not many people ever venture to Idaho, which is about the same land area as Minnesota, or Utah, or Kansas.
North Korea is roughly the same land area as New York, or North Carolina, or Mississippi, or Pennsylvania.
It would take more than National Guard to militarily overcome North Korea.

Blogger John Williams April 17, 2017 9:09 PM  

Ken Prescott, thank you for your comments. I find your stuff fascinating. Have you considered a naval submital to Riding the Red Horse II? Educating people on the complexities of naval warfare & strategic logistics seems to be an unfulfilled niche.

Anonymous Clay April 17, 2017 9:11 PM  

Uh huh..I'd whoop you in a Naval Trivia contest in a heartbeat.

Blogger Ken Prescott April 17, 2017 9:21 PM  

"Ken Prescott, thank you for your comments. I find your stuff fascinating. Have you considered a naval submital to Riding the Red Horse II? Educating people on the complexities of naval warfare & strategic logistics seems to be an unfulfilled niche."

That's the Calexit one, right?

Jeez. If there's anything that would wreck Calexit in short order, it's trying to enforce maritime sovereignty over a 160,000 square mile EEZ...

Blogger Ken Prescott April 17, 2017 9:24 PM  

"Uh huh..I'd whoop you in a Naval Trivia contest in a heartbeat."

Quite possibly. But it'd be an interesting evening.

Anonymous Clay April 17, 2017 9:28 PM  

Yes, I agree, Ken. I certainly wasn't trying to imply you're not intelligent, as far as Naval History is concerned.

Just a challenge from someone with a chance to win.

Anonymous Clay April 17, 2017 9:38 PM  

BTW...you seem to be intelligent...what do you know about F-Lighters?

Hard to find about the F-Lighters, and the battles they fought in the Mediterranean with "PT Boats". You can barely Google F-Lighters.

Sort of a forgotten war.

Blogger Frank Brady April 17, 2017 9:46 PM  

This comment has been removed by the author.

Blogger Frank Brady April 17, 2017 9:47 PM  

A Most Deplorable Paradigm Is More Than Twenty Deplorable Cents wrote:
Ooooh, concern trolls are ever more Concerned.

Tell us, "Frank Brady" and "Elder Son", what is your point, aside from the extremely obvious spreading of FUD? Clearly your intent is to demoralize Trump supporters and those who lean towards supporting Trump, but your "truth teller" cover story is getting thinner and thinner.

So what's the new legend? What's your excuse for bogus predictions, like Frank Brady's version of Chicken Little? What do you bring to the comments besides the same old - same old "Trump's a fake! He can't win! He's sekretly for Hillary! He's Illuminati! He's controlled by the Joos! Aaaaah!" that we've seen for almost a year?

Do y'all have anything real to contribute, anything at all?

I will take no pleasure in the crash of the Cult of Trump which is both imminent and inevitable. I doubt that its most committed members will be able to handle the shattering of their impossible world view and feel nothing but sympathy for them. In truth, we would all be better off if their illusions were correct. They are, most unfortunately, not.

Anonymous Mathias April 17, 2017 10:17 PM  

@141,

Please learn to use reference tags or bold your quotes, when you block quote like that it makes it very difficult to tell where your statement begins and the thing you are responding you ends.

Anonymous Bukulu April 17, 2017 10:35 PM  

Ken @ 126,

You, in turn, misunderstand my point about the statistical nature of your argument (and glossed over my reference to Midway.)

So let me put it more plainly: the enemy might, by some fluke, see our CVN right at the beginning of their search. Then the search IS over and the shooting begins, and it might well be at the enemy's advantage if no one has shot up to that point, and in fact it's not really clear IF it's a shooting war or not.

And I am not at all saying this is a deal-breaker, but I do think plenty of our higher-ups will think that way.

Blogger Elder Son April 17, 2017 10:43 PM  

@122 VD: There is no reason for anyone to pay any attention to your incessant doom-mongering.

Only because the "God-Emperor" crowd here only bothers to read anything that tinkles their fancy for Trump. Or, just your blog.

Have we yet invaded Syria? Yes, and no.

Contrary to what some think here, China and Russia are not aboard the Trump Train in some sort of mutual triad against Kim/NK. Nor will they be forced to act because of Trumps Cruise Missile stunt in Syria. Or his MOAB on Al Qaeda, er the Taliban, er the ISIS. Nor, will they be forced to act against NK because Trump is 3D bad-assing. If they act, it will be on their terms and for their benefit, which is not exactly beneficial to U.S.A. Trump.

Doom mongering? Because I disagree with the crowd that adulates to Trumps 3D NK fiasco? Because I listed some capabilities of NK towards the South? Not hardly. Although the potential for limited regional doom is certainly there.

Maybe it will a poof like a Unicorn rainbow fart? Maybe you got it all figured out, possibly.

We'll see.

Blogger DonReynolds April 17, 2017 10:46 PM  

OK....I read all the comments and two items were not mentioned at all.

First.....Taiwan, which is not something that appears bright on OUR radar, but it is terribly interesting to the Chinese. The only reason that Taiwan is not governed by China is the USA. Would the US be willing to include Taiwan in any deal to solve the problem in North Korea? Normally, I would say no, but we have a new salesman and he loves to make big deals.

Second.....Vietnam. Nobody seems to remember when China last attempted an invasion of Vietnam, which I recall in the Spring of 1979....now officially known as the Sino-Vietnamese War. This war was initiated by China because the Vietnamese had invaded Cambodia the year before and put an end to the rule by the China-backed Khmer Rouge. Vietnam has always been considered a Soviet puppet state. (Does any of this ring any bells regarding North Korea?) The Chinese did not create North Korea, the Soviets did. Yes, there were Chinese "volunteers" during the Korean Conflict, but the Soviets were directing the Chinese war effort and providing the money and arms. Clearly, the Russians are much more invested in North Korea than the Chinese ever thought of being.

More recently, China has been complaining the past few years about Vietnam stealing their business deals. It turns out that the average Chinese worker makes about 50 bucks a month, but they are being seriously undercut by the Vietnamese at 38 bucks a month. It does not mean much to the average American either way, but it makes a big difference to the Chinese. Would Trump add or subtract trade deals with Vietnam in return for Chinese cooperation regarding North Korea?

Blogger Ken Prescott April 17, 2017 10:53 PM  

"So let me put it more plainly: the enemy might, by some fluke, see our CVN right at the beginning of their search. Then the search IS over and the shooting begins, and it might well be at the enemy's advantage if no one has shot up to that point, and in fact it's not really clear IF it's a shooting war or not."

In other words, the instant the sensors go active, they localize AND positively identify the CVN, without the CVN counterdetecting their operations prior to that, and at the same time they have strike assets within lethal range, able to promptly engage the carrier without any further ado...

So, based on an extremely unlikely opening possibility and a damn-near impossible combination of follow-on conditions, we need to immediately ditch the entire aircraft carrier concept immediately and go with some (conveniently undefined) means of exerting maritime power that will miraculously avoid this problem AND accomplish all of the missions the US Navy must undertake...

Blogger Noah B The MacroAggressor April 17, 2017 11:05 PM  

@126 All over-the-horizon radar will accomplish is to tell you that there's a big ship out there.

It's much better than that. For 20 years the US Navy has been using OTH radar to track speed boats crossing the Caribbean all the way from a fixed installation in Virginia. Now they have relocatable OTH radars. It's good enough to narrow down the location of a detected object to within about 40 square miles.

And they still radiate.

Obviously a drone with on-board radar is going to radiate. But there's no need for its radar to activate until the drone has reached the predetermined search area, making it much more difficult to detect and intercept.

Blogger Lazarus April 18, 2017 12:00 AM  

When people try to bolster their weak arguments by referencing a non-existent "Cult of Trump", or maiming scripture in a most perverse fashion to somehow glean the essential nature of the USofA I can only shake my head in wonderment, as their droning, folly-fallen and spleeny presentments betray the flap-mouthed and mangle mewlings of milk-livered hedge-pigs.

Anonymous Phil Mann April 18, 2017 12:01 AM  

Ken Prescott, a few questions if I may (you appear to know way more about this stuff than I do -- these are genuine questions, I'm not looking for a fight.)

With satellites that supposedly "can read a license plate" from way up in space, how do you keep a carrier from being visually detected and tracked? True, there are clouds, but once you know the general location and radius of possible movement over a given time, something the size of a carrier can't go very far before being sighted again. Or can it?

Second, as to distinguishing between a carrier and, e.g. a Panamax container ship, virtually all commercial vessels now use AIS -- which means that anyone with an ipad and a free "Marine Traffic" app can determine in about 30 seconds what any ship he happens to see, or hears about, actually is. Presumably, a foreign military can do the same to get some insight as to what a potential target actually is. So if you're a foreign military and spot a big, fat target that ISN'T using AIS, doesn't that suggest something? (Here on Puget Sound, there are all sorts of Navy ships that are quite visible to the naked eye and show up on radar, but are cryptically referred to as "Naval Units" on the radio and that we civilians are preferably supposed to pretend don't exist.)

Given that virtually every square foot of the Earth's surface is well known and (I think) under more-or-less constant surveillance, I am having a tough time believing you can hide something as big as a carrier for very long.

Finally, so what if you give away your location in the process of monitoring a carrier battle group? What is to keep anyone who wants to from shadowing and following them? Presumably, the tracking ships aren't going to launch an attack. But what keeps them from relaying location information to those who will?

Now I am not a military man (just a long time amateur mariner) and could well be wrong. Hence my questions.

Anonymous Clay April 18, 2017 12:08 AM  

Phil, you'd best go back to your canoe.

Too many questions to shoot-down.

Research satellites some more.

Anonymous Clay April 18, 2017 12:15 AM  

"Ken Prescott wrote:"So let me put it more plainly: the enemy might, by some fluke, see our CVN right at the beginning of their search. Then the search IS over and the shooting begins, and it might well be at the enemy's advantage if no one has shot up to that point, and in fact it's not really clear IF it's a shooting war or not."

In other words, the instant the sensors go active, they localize AND positively identify the CVN, without the CVN counterdetecting their operations prior to that, and at the same time they have strike assets within lethal range, able to promptly engage the carrier without any further ado...

So, based on an extremely unlikely opening possibility and a damn-near impossible combination of follow-on conditions, we need to immediately ditch the entire aircraft carrier concept immediately and go with some (conveniently undefined) means of exerting maritime power that will miraculously avoid this problem AND accomplish all of the missions the US Navy must undertake...
"

I've always said, once our government tells us WHAT they have...it means they have something better.

Anonymous Phil Mann April 18, 2017 12:16 AM  

That's very helpful Clay.

Vox Popoli used to be a place where honest adults could engage in serious discussion without snark.

If someone could provide real answers to my questions, I'd be very appreciative.

Blogger Bob Loblaw April 18, 2017 12:18 AM  

Now, there are a couple of nations that WOULD worry me if they decided to go after American carriers. They are...

(DRUM ROLL SFX)

...Japan and the United Kingdom.


Eh... what? The UK has a capable sub fleet, I guess, but Japan? Not China? And the Russians... a single Kirov has about a coin-flip chance of taking out a US carrier. Granted, there's only one right now, but the Russians are bringing a second back into service next year.

Anonymous Clay April 18, 2017 12:39 AM  

Phil Mann wrote:That's very helpful Clay.

Vox Popoli used to be a place where honest adults could engage in serious discussion without snark.

If someone could provide real answers to my questions, I'd be very appreciative.


My apologies, Phil. Snark was not intended.

Your questions are easily answered, if you can use Google. You are asking questions that can be answered by using a bit of research.

Blogger ZhukovG April 18, 2017 12:43 AM  

It is the Alt-Right that is the engine of change. It is the Alt-Right that is the Nationalist Revolution. Donald Trump, our beloved God Emperor, can lead, facilitate or be the doormat we wipe our feet on. But the Alt-Right will march on.

Referring to President Trump, jokingly, as God Emperor was done because of the humorous reaction it caused among Leftists. Interesting that it seems to cause a strong reaction from Elder Son and Frank Brady. I shall not speculate on the reasons and frankly don't give a rat's whisker what their excuses are.

Anonymous Phil Mann April 18, 2017 12:49 AM  

Thank you Clay, apology accepted. I'll see what I can find.

Anonymous A Most Deplorable Paradigm Is More Than Twenty Cents April 18, 2017 12:56 AM  

For newcomers:

Step 1 was the TEA party, who nicely petitioned for their grievances to be heard and the US gov to obey the law. They were co-opted by the GOPe, slimed as NaziRacistSexists by the swamp stream press; generally treated badly by the uniparty. Some lessons learned.

Step 2 was the Paul candidacy which so scared GOPe that they pulled a lot shady maneuvers in the primaries and convention to make sure he could not be nominated. More lessons learned.

Step 3 is Trump. He's not nice like the TEA party, and he's not collegial like Rand Paul either. He's determined to get things done, one way or another. But he's still working within the form of the Constitution if not the letter.

Step 4 is what will manifest from America if Trump is taken down. You leftards and liberals really don't want to see this. Learn to live with Trump, instead. It will be better for all of us.

Blogger Revelation Means Hope April 18, 2017 1:20 AM  

All that AIS and other stuff that allow things to be tracked from satellites is all fine and good during peacetime.

What if the satellites are either spoofed, blown up, or (most likely) hacked in preparation for hostilities?

Pretty sure these plans have been set up.

Anonymous Clay April 18, 2017 1:59 AM  

Like I've said before....once the US admits to what it has...it only means they don't already have something better.

Anonymous liljoe April 18, 2017 2:08 AM  

looks like China and Russia will definitely NOT be helping the U.S. re: No Korea

http://anonhq.com/u-s-south-korea-agree-activate-thaad-early-defiance-russia-china/

perhaps some of the more military-inclined ilk could explain why this THAAD is such a threat. apparently it's been there since March, but they are activating it now

Anonymous Can Kim Jong Asshole reach Italy? April 18, 2017 3:07 AM  

"Let's him and you fight" is textbook chick speak.

Blogger Shimshon April 18, 2017 3:20 AM  

@157 The Ron Paul 2008 candidacy preceded the Tea Party. Further, the 2007 Tea Party Money Bomb was the early progenitor of it. The shady maneuvers increased markedly in the 2012 campaign, but they started in 2008.

Also, I'd say the lessons learned from GamerGate contributed to Trump's victory.

Anonymous Looking Glass April 18, 2017 5:09 AM  

@161 liljoe

https://infogalactic.com/info/Terminal_High_Altitude_Area_Defense

THAAD is an Kill Device, Launch Platform & Radar System. It's the Radar that just showed up. China doesn't have a huge nuclear arsenal. (At least officially.) Enough THAAD sitting in South Korea & Japan could effectively eliminate most of China's Nuclear deterrent.

In short, SDI the Systems didn't work/matter. SDI the threat, given nearly 40 years of development, are pretty scary for everyone else. Oh, and we have an classified Mini-Shuttle that could easily have a stack of "Rods From God" on them.

Back on THAAD, NK has no way to eliminate the launchers + radar, so any Nuke attack becomes highly questionable. It shifts the technology levels needed to at least current Russian class. That's pretty rough on the "our GDP is 1/6th of Amazon's Revenue" North Korea. Also gives China some indigestion considering where they keep most of their Missiles. (Generally it's on the flight path of the ICBMs.) Russia probably not too happy about it, either, but their strategic assets are all pretty far away.

Blogger Ken Prescott April 18, 2017 7:08 AM  

"Eh... what? The UK has a capable sub fleet, I guess, but Japan? Not China? And the Russians... a single Kirov has about a coin-flip chance of taking out a US carrier. Granted, there's only one right now, but the Russians are bringing a second back into service next year."

Japan and the UK understand navies and how they work a whole lot better than Russia and China do. And they have sufficient scouting assets to reliably find a carrier strike group in their AOR.

A Kirov-centered surface action group is extremely unlikely to win against a carrier strike group; it will die before it even finds the carrier...

Blogger Ken Prescott April 18, 2017 7:09 AM  

"Given that virtually every square foot of the Earth's surface is well known and (I think) under more-or-less constant surveillance, I am having a tough time believing you can hide something as big as a carrier for very long."

Ah, you have hit the core of the issue: the assumption that every square inch of the Earth's surface is under constant surveillance. Honestly, a whole lot of people in the Derp State would like you to believe that it is, because it heightens their apparent power over you.

In reality, it isn't. Surveillance assets are scarce, analytical capacity to process the raw take into usable intelligence is even scarcer, intelligence requirements are plentiful, and because most interesting things involving people take place on land, the gaps in surveillance will be wider at sea than on land (and those gaps are wide enough as is on land).

Anonymous Clay April 18, 2017 9:27 AM  

Heck, there's probably some goober with a drone he bought at Radio Shack hovering over my deck, looking for the fat squirrel that used to be in my backyard.

Anonymous A Deplorable Paradigm Is More Than Twenty Cents April 18, 2017 11:09 AM  

@163 Shimshon
@157 The Ron Paul 2008 candidacy preceded the Tea Party. Further, the 2007 Tea Party Money Bomb was the early progenitor of it. The shady maneuvers increased markedly in the 2012 campaign, but they started in 2008.

We'll just have to disagree. Far as I can tell the TEA party really got going as a "thing" starting in Feb. 2009. Yes, there were shenanigans in the 2008 GOPe primaries, but nothing like 2012. That's when GOPe demanded loyalty oaths long before Mittens had the nomination sewed up. That's when the GOPe rewrote rules on the convention floor just to keep Dr. Paul from even getting to speak to the convention.

TEA party respectfully requested change starting in 2009. Dr. Paul had requested change in 2008 but even more in 2012. GOPe blew all of them off but was happy to co-opt both groups.

Now we have Trump. The Uniparty better learn to live with him, because he's still willing to sort of operate within the Constitution. 0bama left behind a lot of assumed powers for the Presidency to use. If the Uniparty takes out Trump, whoever comes next won't have his scruples.

Also, I'd say the lessons learned from GamerGate contributed to Trump's victory.

Absolutely, and if the Uniparty takes Trump out, expect weaponized autists to get behind whoever comes next.

Blogger JaimeInTexas April 18, 2017 12:10 PM  

How many carriers are now reported to have been sent towards the Koreas, three or four?
What is the effective range of a carrier?
Concentrating carrier groups wise?

Anonymous Bukulu April 18, 2017 4:21 PM  

Ken @ 146,

"In other words..."

No.

Just no.

Blogger IamBriton April 18, 2017 8:05 PM  

To each their own. Excellent Call!

Anonymous Mathias April 18, 2017 8:11 PM  

@168,

I can confirm the whole "Tea Party" think started with the 2007 Ron Paul campaign and was co-opted by the GoPe. I believe it started on a shrimping boat in the Galveston bay, there is still video of Ron Paul's rally that day. I was there, saw the whole thing, and will happily swear such a thing is true under penalty of perjury.

Post a Comment

Rules of the blog
Please do not comment as "Anonymous". Comments by "Anonymous" will be spammed.

<< Home

Newer Posts Older Posts